How to avoid being misled by statistics


Don’t Be One of the 60% Who are Below Average

Three kinds of people ought to read this book.


Firstly there are those who use statistics in their work: accountants, scientists, advertisers, marketers, politicians and journalists. If you are in one of these categories I would like to help you to maintain, or aspire to, a reasonable standard of honesty and integrity, so that people can trust what you say, and so that you do not even inadvertently mislead yourself as well as others.


Secondly there are cynics who think statistics can never be trusted and are just tools used by liars. I want to show that they can be used properly, and also that with a little thought, we can all learn to spot the false or exaggerated claims, the non-sequiturs, and the unsubstantiated assumptions. Then we will be able to see the truth when it appears.


Thirdly, there are the huge number of ordinary people who get totally confused and sometimes, sadly, misled, by statistics. I want to help you make sense of what you read or hear, and to be able to be confident in sorting the facts from the hype.


It is for this third group that this book is really written. If the other two groups benefit, I will be glad, but if you are in this third group, please read on. I hope you will enjoy it, but above all I hope it will empower you.


The rest of this is available via Create Space and Amazon as well as in many bookshops.


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Be victorious


Lessons from World War I for Business and Everyday Life

This year, we have all been hearing and reading a lot about the First World War which, as we are frequently being reminded, began 100 years ago this August. I expect there will be plenty more to come.


Now I love history and find a lot of this very interesting, but I know that is not how everyone feels. For some it is like being not interested in football in this World Cup year. Anyway, whatever your attitude, you had better prepare yourself for all the clichés that the media will be bombarding us with, often going over the top, sometimes having a shot at making us shell out for the books, magazines, DVDs and memorabilia that will be coming at us on all sides.


It has been said, however, that the main use for the past is for us to learn from it. So even if you do not take much interest in history, I assure you there are lots of lessons to be learnt from the Great War. Not only for soldiers or politicians. It was a classic case of How Not To Do... lots of things, as well as containing just the odd exceptional example that may be worth copying! It has often been said too that generals tend to make the mistake of preparing to fight the last war again instead of thinking about the future. I certainly do not want to encourage anyone to be too backward looking, but I do believe there are lessons we can all learn from the errors, and even the occasional moment of insight, that we can see in the Great War.


Therefore, I am setting out in this book my thoughts on how to apply some of the lessons of that War to management, especially risk management. But let us remember that risk management cannot be separated from other aspects of life in general, so there will probably be something for almost everyone in this book.


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Load the dice


A Simple Guide to Managing Risks in Small Businesses

If you think Risk Management is a bit of meaningless management-speak, this is the book for you. The World is full of risks and they all need managing. In fact we all manage risks all the time whether well or badly. Every decision we make involves making some assessment of the risks involved.


Risk Management is simply an attempt at doing it more explicitly, scientifically and, hopefully, effectively.


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Cope with Church


Practical advice for would-be Christians

If you are a determined atheist this book is not for you. If you are strong in the faith it is not for you either. If you are somewhere in between, if you have problems with Church, Bible reading, prayer, if you have not been for a while and are nervous about going back, if you have doubts and questions and do not like to ask, then this book could be just wht you need. John Harvey murray shares insights gained from experience in many different churches on the journey of faith and life. If he can cope, so can you.


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Accounting for Murder


Double Entry

When former athlete Patty Rogers decides to divorce her unfaithful husband, Ray, she calls on accountant, Frank Hill, to find Ray’s conveniently missing investments. The trail leads from Cardiff to the financial heart of the City of London and to Aberystwyth, where the mystery turns into a murder. The police regard Patty as their one and only suspect. Frank and his teenage daughter Jane try to find the real killer, unaware of the dangers they are facing from corrupt accountants, racist thugs, a dog-fighting gang, uncooperative policemen and Ray’s mistress, a pop star with many faces and a rock-solid alibi. To see justice done they will need all Frank’s investigative skills and Jane’s youthful energy. And more.


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